Federal Reserve

April 2026: A Make-or-Break Moment for Global Markets On March 30, I summarized the four most critical analytical frameworks currently shaping the market. Let me cut to the chase. Why April Is the Critical Window That Will Determine the Year’s Direction Back in late 2025, I identified three key dates: January, April, and October 2026. At that time, the war in the Middle East had not yet broken out, and my assessment was based entirely on financial fundamentals. Now, with the added variable of the war, the significance of April has been amplified to the extreme. ...

A Series of Analytical Frameworks on the Performance of Major Asset Classes During a Rate-Cutting Cycle With the Federal Reserve officially launching its rate-cutting cycle in October 2025, global major asset classes are set to enter a new pricing cycle. This series of analyses will cover five major asset classes: gold, silver, A-shares, U.S. stocks, and commodities. As the first installment in the series, this article focuses on the macro investment logic behind gold. ...

Key Assumptions Although the likelihood of the U.S. implementing a YCC policy is currently high, there have been no clear official signals. This article analyzes the potential impacts solely from a macroeconomic perspective. Should the Federal Reserve formally introduce YCC in the future, a more precise analysis will require consideration of the specific timing of its implementation—which could occur after a change in the Fed’s leadership or during a liquidity crisis in the U.S. Treasury market. ...

Analyzing the Core Contradictions of the U.S. Economy In this issue, we focus on the most acute structural contradictions currently plaguing the U.S. economy, and how these contradictions will shape the future direction of interest rate policy. Many people harbor unrealistic expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, believing that a simple rate cut will solve all problems. This view completely overlooks the fundamental paradigm shift that has already taken place in the global economy. ...

I. Policy Shift Following the Jackson Hole Symposium At the 2025 Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve made significant adjustments to its interest rate policy, addressing both the short-term path and the long-term monetary framework. In the short term, Powell explicitly acknowledged that current interest rates are in a restrictive range (above the neutral rate) and are already dampening economic growth, effectively opening the door to a rate cut in September. ...

Criteria for Assessing the Middle East Situation: An Analysis of the Nature of the Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities At present, there is no reliable evidence to prove that the United States has completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities. The criterion for determining whether the attack was successful is simple: as long as the United States is still willing to negotiate with Iran, it means the nuclear facilities have not been destroyed. Conversely, considering that Israel has already assassinated most of Iran’s nuclear scientists, if the nuclear facilities were destroyed as well, the U.S. would have absolutely no reason to continue negotiations. ...