Welcome to Geopolitics & Economy

I. The Starting Point: The Intersection of Two Causal Chains In the current global capital landscape, there is a structural phenomenon worth examining: the ongoing increase in entropy within the Middle Eastern geopolitical order and the potential inflection point in the AI valuation system of the U.S. stock market are becoming coupled through a hidden capital transmission chain. This is not an intuitive “butterfly effect” narrative, but rather a capital flow model with traceable causality. Let us start from first principles and dissect it layer by layer. ...

Two-Pronged Defense: Practical Strategies for Gold, Oil, and A-Shares Short-Term Trading Strategies for A-Shares In our previous video, we primarily discussed the long-term investment logic for A-shares; in this episode, we will focus on short-term trading strategies. The core strategy for the Shanghai Composite Index at present is to maintain a watch-and-wait position, waiting for clear market signals before seeking appropriate opportunities to add to positions. The goal is to control the average cost of holdings and avoid blindly increasing positions. ...

Two-Pronged Defense: When the Market Is Bullish, You Should Be Even More Cautious What Is a Two-Pronged Defense Strategy The two-pronged defense is our core investment strategy, which we have been implementing for over a month. Its core logic is to simultaneously guard against two extreme market sentiments: preventing forced sell-offs at market bottoms caused by excessive pessimism, and preventing chasing the market at highs driven by excessive optimism. At the onset of the crisis, global markets experienced a collective downturn: U.S., Japanese, South Korean, and European stocks, as well as A-shares, all fell in unison; gold prices dropped sharply in the short term; and oil prices soared. At that time, our primary objective was to prevent investors from becoming overly pessimistic. We highlighted opportunities for a U.S. stock market rebound, executed three rounds of position increases at the bottom of the gold market, and took profits on WTI crude oil positions above $110. ...

Data Scarcity: A Crossroads for AI Development Over the past decade, AI has grown rapidly by devouring human knowledge, but now the supply of high-quality data is nearing depletion. This crisis mirrors the food shortages once faced by our human ancestors. In 2000 BC, our ancestors were forced to migrate due to climate change; in 2026, the silicon-based lifeforms we have created face the same existential choice: either degenerate through data inbreeding, or break through their own limitations to achieve an evolution that surpasses human cognition—at the cost of humanity potentially losing all control over AI. ...

Introduction Hello everyone, today we’re going to talk about the U.S.-Iran conflict. Our discussion today will cover the following points: First, we’ll discuss the U.S.’s recent actions to block the Strait of Hormuz; Second, we’ll analyze the current situations of the U.S. and Iran; Third, we’ll talk about what is often referred to as Trump’s “perfect plan”—namely, the possibility that Trump might make a comeback in 2027; Fourth, at this stage, I do not believe a war in the Middle East will escalate into World War III. If World War III were to break out one day in the future, what would be the prerequisites or preconditions for its outbreak? Fifth, if you were Trump, how would you strategize in the Middle East to secure U.S. hegemony? ...

Assessment of the Pace of U.S.-Iran Negotiations Currently, the prevailing view is that the U.S. and Iran will ultimately engage in peace talks. The pace is likely to mirror that of the tariff and trade wars—dragging on, with cycles of conflict and negotiation, taking a long time. However, the basic framework may be finalized by the end of April. We cannot rule out a final round of high-stakes brinkmanship before then, nor can we rule out unexpected complications during the negotiations, attempts by the U.S. to seize nuclear materials, or further assassinations by Israel. Nevertheless, the current assessment is that there is a high probability the situation will be resolved by the end of April. ...

Overall Outlook on Crude Oil Prices and Major Asset Classes Next, let’s discuss the overall outlook for oil, coal, fertilizers, agriculture, and other metals. Key Assessment of Crude Oil Prices First and foremost, while we remain bullish on oil, coal, fertilizers, agriculture, and other metals in the long term, this does not mean I believe oil can remain stable above $300 for an extended period. At this stage, the best approach is to wait until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and crude oil prices pull back before adding to your oil positions. At current levels, adding to your oil positions carries relatively high risk, so it’s advisable to wait a little longer. ...

April Geopolitical Analysis Framework April 2026 marks a critical turning point in the current geopolitical landscape, with only one key variable: whether the Trump administration can complete its troop withdrawal from the Middle East by the end of the month. Two scenarios correspond to entirely different paths of subsequent development, but the core conclusion is clear: there is no possibility of a Third World War breaking out, the scale of the conflict will not expand further, and the only difference lies in its duration. ...

April 2026: A Make-or-Break Moment for Global Markets On March 30, I summarized the four most critical analytical frameworks currently shaping the market. Let me cut to the chase. Why April Is the Critical Window That Will Determine the Year’s Direction Back in late 2025, I identified three key dates: January, April, and October 2026. At that time, the war in the Middle East had not yet broken out, and my assessment was based entirely on financial fundamentals. Now, with the added variable of the war, the significance of April has been amplified to the extreme. ...

Richard Sutton, a Turing Award laureate, pioneer in the field of reinforcement learning, and key contributor to policy gradient algorithms and temporal difference learning, is known in the industry as the “Father of Reinforcement Learning.” In late September 2025, this key founder of large language models expressed profound skepticism about the current development path of such models in a public interview, stating bluntly that the technological approach exemplified by ChatGPT is not the ultimate answer to achieving true intelligence. ...

The Nature of This Round of the Tariff War: Reactive Defense Rather Than Proactive Offense The tariff threats launched by Trump in October 2025 were, in essence, a reactive response rather than a premeditated offensive. Although the Trump administration’s earlier imposition of special port fees on Chinese vessels was indeed a proactive move, the tariff actions in October were more of a knee-jerk reaction born of desperation. Since April 2025, Trump has been advancing a global geopolitical strategy of “encircling the city from the countryside”: first negotiating tariff agreements with peripheral nations such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe, while simultaneously courting countries along the Belt and Road route, with the aim of accumulating enough leverage from these external partners to then pressure China. As of October, his actions have largely aligned with this strategy. Trump has been touting his role in resolving conflicts in India-Pakistan, the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and Thailand-Myanmar, even going so far as to express interest in winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Essentially, he aims to project a positive image of the United States, gain the upper hand in the propaganda war, and facilitate the rallying of more nations to jointly target China. In this tariff war, he has packaged himself as the victim using precisely this logic. ...

Introduction to This Issue We had originally planned to release the second installment of our gold analysis, but due to the recent influx of questions regarding gold, silver, and commodities, we have decided to publish this additional data update. It is important to clarify a key premise upfront: the validity of any single indicator is only temporary. Do not cling to outdated methods by relying solely on a single set of data to judge market trends; only through multi-dimensional cross-validation and integration with macroeconomic trend analysis can you improve the accuracy of your decisions. ...

A Series of Analytical Frameworks on the Performance of Major Asset Classes During a Rate-Cutting Cycle With the Federal Reserve officially launching its rate-cutting cycle in October 2025, global major asset classes are set to enter a new pricing cycle. This series of analyses will cover five major asset classes: gold, silver, A-shares, U.S. stocks, and commodities. As the first installment in the series, this article focuses on the macro investment logic behind gold. ...

A Major Shift in Trump’s Global Geostrategy Trump’s second state visit to the UK in September 2025 marked a landmark event signaling a formal shift in U.S. global geostrategy. The visit brought together U.S. tech and financial giants such as Apple, OpenAI, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, while Palantir is also set to sign a major defense contract with the UK. This series of moves indicates that the U.S. strategy toward Europe has now been fully mapped out. Many people focused solely on the street protests in the UK during the visit, completely missing the point—the real game-changer is that the underlying logic of Trump’s strategy toward Europe has shifted. ...

The Essence of the U.S. Political System: Money Politics and Dependence on Expansion The historical trajectory of U.S. development clearly demonstrates the central role that external expansion has played in supporting its economic growth. If we compare human society to a finely tuned machine, the forces driving it can be broadly divided into two categories: external plunder and internal reform. The current U.S. system of money politics fundamentally determines that it can only choose the former—capital groups directly control the direction of policy through political donations. They will never support bottom-up systemic reforms that harm their own interests, but will only push for piecemeal adjustments that deregulate capital. ...

Geostrategic Implications of the July 3 Military Parade: China Has Completed Its Transition from Strategic Defense to Strategic Stalemate Conclusions on the Dual Military Transformation The most fundamental military significance of the 2025 September 3rd Military Parade can be summarized in two points: First, China has thoroughly completed its military transition from strategic defense to strategic stalemate, with the supporting equipment system now fully in place. This transition spanned approximately a decade: the 2014 test launch of the DF-17 marked the start of the transition; the 2019 military parade officially unveiled this weapon, demonstrating that the transition had entered an accelerated phase; and the 2025 military parade declared the transition fully mature. Second, the Chinese military has completed its transformation toward the “Five Modernizations” (systematization, modularization, informatization, intelligentization, and unmanned operations). Equipment iteration follows a four-step path: “explore one generation, pre-research one generation, develop one generation, and produce one generation.” The production phase adheres to a strategy of “small steps and rapid progress,” implementing small-batch, high-frequency equipment upgrades based on demand to avoid fiscal waste. ...

Key Assumptions Although the likelihood of the U.S. implementing a YCC policy is currently high, there have been no clear official signals. This article analyzes the potential impacts solely from a macroeconomic perspective. Should the Federal Reserve formally introduce YCC in the future, a more precise analysis will require consideration of the specific timing of its implementation—which could occur after a change in the Fed’s leadership or during a liquidity crisis in the U.S. Treasury market. ...

Analyzing the Core Contradictions of the U.S. Economy In this issue, we focus on the most acute structural contradictions currently plaguing the U.S. economy, and how these contradictions will shape the future direction of interest rate policy. Many people harbor unrealistic expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, believing that a simple rate cut will solve all problems. This view completely overlooks the fundamental paradigm shift that has already taken place in the global economy. ...

Wall Street’s short squeeze on gold has completely failed this time; there isn’t enough time or room left to push prices lower. If the U.S. actually implements YCC in the future, these institutions might just flip their positions and go long. This failed short squeeze isn’t a tactical issue at all; it’s because the fundamentals of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries are absolutely rotten. Coupled with the broader trend of deglobalization, the world is dumping dollar assets and buying gold—demand simply can’t be suppressed. It is highly likely that gold will reach $3,700 in the coming months. Even if a liquidity crisis were to occur in the interim, it would only be a temporary pullback; the long-term trend remains unchanged. ...

I. Policy Shift Following the Jackson Hole Symposium At the 2025 Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve made significant adjustments to its interest rate policy, addressing both the short-term path and the long-term monetary framework. In the short term, Powell explicitly acknowledged that current interest rates are in a restrictive range (above the neutral rate) and are already dampening economic growth, effectively opening the door to a rate cut in September. ...