Geostrategic Implications of the July 3 Military Parade: China Has Completed Its Transition from Strategic Defense to Strategic Stalemate

Conclusions on the Dual Military Transformation

The most fundamental military significance of the 2025 September 3rd Military Parade can be summarized in two points: First, China has thoroughly completed its military transition from strategic defense to strategic stalemate, with the supporting equipment system now fully in place. This transition spanned approximately a decade: the 2014 test launch of the DF-17 marked the start of the transition; the 2019 military parade officially unveiled this weapon, demonstrating that the transition had entered an accelerated phase; and the 2025 military parade declared the transition fully mature. Second, the Chinese military has completed its transformation toward the “Five Modernizations” (systematization, modularization, informatization, intelligentization, and unmanned operations). Equipment iteration follows a four-step path: “explore one generation, pre-research one generation, develop one generation, and produce one generation.” The production phase adheres to a strategy of “small steps and rapid progress,” implementing small-batch, high-frequency equipment upgrades based on demand to avoid fiscal waste.

The Economic Preparation for Strategic Transformation

Strategic planning at the economic level began even earlier, with 2013 marking a critical starting point:

  • In November 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee elevated the “Belt and Road Initiative” to a national strategy
  • In March 2015, the “Belt and Road Initiative” was incorporated into the Government Work Report; the majority of foreign guests invited to this military parade hailed from countries along the Belt and Road routes
  • August 11, 2015: The exchange rate reform was implemented, establishing a RMB exchange rate formation mechanism based on “closing price + a basket of currencies + a counter-cyclical factor,” laying the foundation for the internationalization of the RMB
  • November 2015: Supply-side reform 1.0 was launched
  • July 2016: The South China Sea standoff completed a military stress test
  • December 2016: The principle of “housing for living, not for speculation” was established to mitigate internal economic risks

This series of policy initiatives constituted a systematic response to the U.S. announcement in 2011 of a strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific and the formal launch of the Asia-Pacific Rebalance Strategy in 2012. The U.S.’s original strategic objective was to confine China’s influence to “north of the Himalayas and west of the Taiwan Strait,” effectively forcing China to become a landlocked nation and relinquish its maritime power. However, China’s approach—first breaking westward through the “Belt and Road” Initiative to secure energy security, then seeking maritime power to the east—completely disrupted U.S. strategic deployments.

External Confirmation of the Strategic Stalemate Phase

There are clear external signals that China and the U.S. will enter a phase of strategic stalemate after 2025: The latest draft of the U.S. National Defense Strategy indicates that its focus will return to the American continent, marking a shift back toward the Monroe Doctrine and effectively acknowledging the reality that it cannot maintain absolute dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the economic transition still faces significant challenges, the military transition has been fully implemented.

Political and Diplomatic Signals of the Military Parade

The political significance of this military parade far exceeds that of a mere military display: China has clearly issued a call to the world to bid farewell to the Cold War system and return to the post-World War II system centered on fairness and justice. The concrete expression of this proposition in the contemporary era is the concept of a “community with a shared future for mankind,” which emphasizes that the peoples of all nations must jointly resist the historical backwash, rather than limiting cooperation to the governmental level.

Divided Perceptions in the Western World

Reactions to the September 3 military parade among Western audiences show clear stratification:

  • Western politicians focus primarily on China’s diplomatic strategies and strategic intentions
  • Western military officials focus primarily on analyzing weapon systems and operational concepts
  • The general Western public exhibits three distinct attitudes: complete ignorance, fear coupled with calls for confrontation, and skepticism that the parade format aligns with Western standards of “democracy and freedom.” Most Westerners not only remain unaware that this parade commemorates the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War against Fascism, but also widely hold the misconception that “the U.S. military is more capable because it has more combat experience”—a result of long-term public opinion shaping by Western media. The refusal of traditional anti-fascist nations such as the U.S., the U.K., and France to participate in the parade essentially constitutes resistance to the transformation of the existing international order.