Geopolitics

Two-Pronged Defense: When the Market Is Bullish, You Should Be Even More Cautious What Is a Two-Pronged Defense Strategy The two-pronged defense is our core investment strategy, which we have been implementing for over a month. Its core logic is to simultaneously guard against two extreme market sentiments: preventing forced sell-offs at market bottoms caused by excessive pessimism, and preventing chasing the market at highs driven by excessive optimism. At the onset of the crisis, global markets experienced a collective downturn: U.S., Japanese, South Korean, and European stocks, as well as A-shares, all fell in unison; gold prices dropped sharply in the short term; and oil prices soared. At that time, our primary objective was to prevent investors from becoming overly pessimistic. We highlighted opportunities for a U.S. stock market rebound, executed three rounds of position increases at the bottom of the gold market, and took profits on WTI crude oil positions above $110. ...

April 2026: A Make-or-Break Moment for Global Markets On March 30, I summarized the four most critical analytical frameworks currently shaping the market. Let me cut to the chase. Why April Is the Critical Window That Will Determine the Year’s Direction Back in late 2025, I identified three key dates: January, April, and October 2026. At that time, the war in the Middle East had not yet broken out, and my assessment was based entirely on financial fundamentals. Now, with the added variable of the war, the significance of April has been amplified to the extreme. ...

The Nature of This Round of the Tariff War: Reactive Defense Rather Than Proactive Offense The tariff threats launched by Trump in October 2025 were, in essence, a reactive response rather than a premeditated offensive. Although the Trump administration’s earlier imposition of special port fees on Chinese vessels was indeed a proactive move, the tariff actions in October were more of a knee-jerk reaction born of desperation. Since April 2025, Trump has been advancing a global geopolitical strategy of “encircling the city from the countryside”: first negotiating tariff agreements with peripheral nations such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe, while simultaneously courting countries along the Belt and Road route, with the aim of accumulating enough leverage from these external partners to then pressure China. As of October, his actions have largely aligned with this strategy. Trump has been touting his role in resolving conflicts in India-Pakistan, the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, and Thailand-Myanmar, even going so far as to express interest in winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Essentially, he aims to project a positive image of the United States, gain the upper hand in the propaganda war, and facilitate the rallying of more nations to jointly target China. In this tariff war, he has packaged himself as the victim using precisely this logic. ...

A Major Shift in Trump’s Global Geostrategy Trump’s second state visit to the UK in September 2025 marked a landmark event signaling a formal shift in U.S. global geostrategy. The visit brought together U.S. tech and financial giants such as Apple, OpenAI, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, while Palantir is also set to sign a major defense contract with the UK. This series of moves indicates that the U.S. strategy toward Europe has now been fully mapped out. Many people focused solely on the street protests in the UK during the visit, completely missing the point—the real game-changer is that the underlying logic of Trump’s strategy toward Europe has shifted. ...

The Essence of the U.S. Political System: Money Politics and Dependence on Expansion The historical trajectory of U.S. development clearly demonstrates the central role that external expansion has played in supporting its economic growth. If we compare human society to a finely tuned machine, the forces driving it can be broadly divided into two categories: external plunder and internal reform. The current U.S. system of money politics fundamentally determines that it can only choose the former—capital groups directly control the direction of policy through political donations. They will never support bottom-up systemic reforms that harm their own interests, but will only push for piecemeal adjustments that deregulate capital. ...

Geostrategic Implications of the July 3 Military Parade: China Has Completed Its Transition from Strategic Defense to Strategic Stalemate Conclusions on the Dual Military Transformation The most fundamental military significance of the 2025 September 3rd Military Parade can be summarized in two points: First, China has thoroughly completed its military transition from strategic defense to strategic stalemate, with the supporting equipment system now fully in place. This transition spanned approximately a decade: the 2014 test launch of the DF-17 marked the start of the transition; the 2019 military parade officially unveiled this weapon, demonstrating that the transition had entered an accelerated phase; and the 2025 military parade declared the transition fully mature. Second, the Chinese military has completed its transformation toward the “Five Modernizations” (systematization, modularization, informatization, intelligentization, and unmanned operations). Equipment iteration follows a four-step path: “explore one generation, pre-research one generation, develop one generation, and produce one generation.” The production phase adheres to a strategy of “small steps and rapid progress,” implementing small-batch, high-frequency equipment upgrades based on demand to avoid fiscal waste. ...

Breaking Down the U.S.-Russia Negotiations: Trump’s Energy Encirclement and Putin’s Geopolitical Red Lines Trump’s Economic Cards: Energy Is the Key Weapon When Trump negotiated tariffs with major oil-importing nations like Europe, Japan, and South Korea, only two concrete measures were implemented: adjusting tariff rates and requiring them to purchase U.S. energy. Those investment agreements, often worth hundreds of billions of dollars, were largely for show and held little practical binding force. ...

Project Overview and Scale On July 19, 2025, construction officially began on the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Project, which is being developed by the newly established China Yajiang Group. The project employs a development model that involves straightening the river course and diverting water through tunnels. It comprises five cascade power stations with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan—equivalent to the combined investment of three Three Gorges Projects—and is expected to take 10 to 15 years to complete. Upon completion, it will become the largest hydropower project in human history, with an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours. This will account for 3% of China’s total electricity consumption in 2024, meet 20% of residential electricity demand, and serve approximately 280 million people. ...

Summary of the US-Iran-Israel Conflict and Outlook for the Future of the Middle East Differences in Strategic Objectives Between Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel On July 1, 2025, let’s review the recent developments in the Iran-Israel conflict and discuss possible future trajectories for the Middle East. First, let’s compare the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel theaters side by side; doing so reveals many interesting insights. Russia has been fighting the Russia-Ukraine war for so long, yet its objectives have remained largely unchanged from the very beginning: the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and preventing its accession to NATO. From start to finish, it has been referred to as a “special military operation,” with no mention of an escalation to full-scale war. With this single move, they’ve effectively twisted the “anti-Nazi World War II narrative” the West wanted to push into a “World War I-style narrative of great power geopolitical rivalry”—in plain terms, it’s all about seizing territory, with no clear distinction between good and evil. As a result, resistance from the international community to unite against Russia has naturally diminished, making it easier to negotiate long-term cooperation with other nations. ...

Criteria for Assessing the Middle East Situation: An Analysis of the Nature of the Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities At present, there is no reliable evidence to prove that the United States has completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities. The criterion for determining whether the attack was successful is simple: as long as the United States is still willing to negotiate with Iran, it means the nuclear facilities have not been destroyed. Conversely, considering that Israel has already assassinated most of Iran’s nuclear scientists, if the nuclear facilities were destroyed as well, the U.S. would have absolutely no reason to continue negotiations. ...

The Core Logic of Gold Allocation: Geopolitics Is the Primary Driver The pricing of gold has long been driven by two major factors: geopolitics and the economy. The recent “Operation Spider Web” in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the earlier India-Pakistan conflict, are vivid examples of gold’s safe-haven attributes. We have repeatedly emphasized that in the current “Warring States Period” of global geopolitical fragmentation, one must never hold a zero position in gold. While most people do not yet fully grasp the significance of this statement, after experiencing several instances of sharp gold price volatility triggered by sudden geopolitical events, they will develop a reflexive understanding of its importance. Do not attempt to time the market precisely; you cannot predict what geopolitical events will occur between morning and afternoon, nor can you make a 100% accurate judgment on economic trends. The correct strategy is to maintain a core position: add to your holdings in stages during downturns and gradually reduce them during uptrends. This approach avoids both fully betting on the market and completely exiting it, thereby preventing you from being caught off guard by sudden risk events. ...