Summary of the US-Iran-Israel Conflict and Outlook for the Future of the Middle East
Differences in Strategic Objectives Between Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel
On July 1, 2025, let’s review the recent developments in the Iran-Israel conflict and discuss possible future trajectories for the Middle East. First, let’s compare the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel theaters side by side; doing so reveals many interesting insights.
Russia has been fighting the Russia-Ukraine war for so long, yet its objectives have remained largely unchanged from the very beginning: the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and preventing its accession to NATO. From start to finish, it has been referred to as a “special military operation,” with no mention of an escalation to full-scale war. With this single move, they’ve effectively twisted the “anti-Nazi World War II narrative” the West wanted to push into a “World War I-style narrative of great power geopolitical rivalry”—in plain terms, it’s all about seizing territory, with no clear distinction between good and evil. As a result, resistance from the international community to unite against Russia has naturally diminished, making it easier to negotiate long-term cooperation with other nations.
The situation with Iran is quite different. Even now, they haven’t established a clear long-term objective; they’re stuck in a reactive, tit-for-tat mode—if Israel strikes, they strike back. Without a clear goal, even if Russia and others wanted to help, they wouldn’t know how. They can’t exactly keep sending you bombs every day, waiting for Israel to strike so you can fire them back. Without a long-term cooperative framework, the aid provided will always be temporary and unable to solve the root problems.
The Dynamics of War Narratives
Don’t underestimate the importance of defining the nature of a war; how it’s framed directly determines how much resources other countries are willing to commit: If it’s framed as a “good versus evil” scenario like World War II, the whole world will band together to fight you at any cost, and the public pressure alone could crush you; If it’s framed as a “great powers scrambling for territory” scenario like World War I, everyone will weigh their own interests, creating room for cooperation and trade-offs.
Russia has played this hand exceptionally well, forcibly stripping off the “Nazi aggressor” label the West had pinned on it. Now, people in the West are discussing why NATO expanded eastward back then, why Russia wasn’t allowed to join NATO, and some even suggest that restoring relations with Russia could help curb inflation.
Iran originally had a golden opportunity. When the Israel-Palestine conflict first erupted, the whole world was condemning Israel. If Iran had stepped forward at that time to raise the banner of opposition to Zionist colonialism, it could have framed the Middle East conflict as a just resistance against oppression—much like the narrative of World War II. Instead, Iran hesitated and dared not act, squandering the window of opportunity during Biden’s term. Now that Trump is back in office, things are even tougher for them.
A Few Thoughts on Iran
When we say Iran’s strategy is unclear, we’re not saying Iran is incapable. Across the entire Middle East, only the Shia nations are truly standing up to Israel. Those Sunni nations are only interested in making money and couldn’t care less about the Palestinians’ plight. Iran’s GDP is roughly equivalent to that of a single Chinese province, so the fact that it dares to go head-to-head with the U.S. is already quite gutsy.
Iran’s hesitation is understandable. Its domestic economy is in shambles, and its political situation is unstable. To fully commit to war would be to stake the entire nation’s future—anyone would have to weigh the risks carefully. But once an opportunity is missed, it’s gone, and the price must still be paid. Iran can take a measured, step-by-step approach militarily, but diplomatically and politically, it must have a clear objective and a rallying cry. Otherwise, it will never secure stable international support or build long-term cooperative relationships.