Introduction to This Issue

We had originally planned to release the second installment of our gold analysis, but due to the recent influx of questions regarding gold, silver, and commodities, we have decided to publish this additional data update. It is important to clarify a key premise upfront: the validity of any single indicator is only temporary. Do not cling to outdated methods by relying solely on a single set of data to judge market trends; only through multi-dimensional cross-validation and integration with macroeconomic trend analysis can you improve the accuracy of your decisions.

GOFO Indicator and Historical Gold Buying Opportunities

I have been closely tracking the GoFor Bid Offer Spread (hereinafter referred to as GOFO) indicator. Since the beginning of 2023, every time this indicator has dropped rapidly, it has presented a prime buying opportunity for gold. The underlying logic was explained in detail in the video on June 20, so I won’t repeat it here.

Reviewing the trends of recent years:

  • At the end of 2022, the GOFO indicator dropped to a new low, presenting an excellent opportunity to add to positions;
  • October 2023, early February 2024, late March 2024, October 2024, early January 2025, mid-April 2025, and mid-August 2025—these were all clear windows for adding to positions.

Since August 2024, this channel has shifted its focus to sharing economic content, and clear alerts were issued for each of the key buying opportunities mentioned above: On November 8, 2024, we advised entering the market; on January 17, 2025, we explicitly warned against reducing or closing out gold positions, while also forecasting that gold could reach $3,700 between 2025 and 2026; on April 8, 2025, we again advised adding to positions; and in mid-August 2025, we posted multiple updates and videos highlighting buying opportunities. Historical backtesting shows that the timing of these alerts closely aligns with the signals provided by the GOFO indicator.

Currently, the GOFO has not yet issued a clear buy signal. There is no need to be overly anxious during this period; simply wait patiently. Once the signal appears, enter the market decisively. We reiterate: do not focus solely on the GOFO indicator. Market dynamics are constantly evolving, and different core indicators should be referenced at different stages.

Based on current GOFO trends, the silver indicator remains in a downtrend, indicating ample room for future upside. At present, the physical squeeze in silver is more severe than in gold; the ratio of paper silver to physical silver is higher than that of paper gold to physical gold. Meanwhile, industrial demand for silver is exceptionally robust, with irreplaceable applications in sectors such as photovoltaics, electronic components, electric vehicles, and healthcare, providing strong support for physical demand.

Recent data indicates that India continues to accumulate silver, and Japan’s silver purchases have also risen significantly. If this trend persists, silver’s future price appreciation is likely to outpace that of gold.

Commodity Market Outlook

(Note: The original text was truncated; the following is compiled based on available information.) In addition to gold and silver, this issue will also analyze market conditions for commodities such as copper, palladium, platinum, and lithium. The price movements of these commodities are highly correlated with macroeconomic cycles and are directly influenced by geopolitical factors and industrial policies. We will provide a detailed breakdown in subsequent sections.

Investment Decision-Making Principles

Finally, let’s reiterate a few operational principles:

  1. Do not rely excessively on a single indicator; establish a multi-dimensional analytical framework;
  2. Remain patient when opportunities have not yet emerged; do not trade just for the sake of trading;
  3. Make decisive decisions when signals are clear; do not hesitate and miss the window of opportunity;
  4. Invest only with disposable income; do not use funds that have an opportunity cost to participate in the market.