The Truth Behind U.S.-Russia Negotiations: Rumors of a Territorial Swap and the West’s Divide-and-Conquer Tactics The So-Called Territorial Exchange: A Complete Diplomatic Fiasco Recently, both domestic and international media have been hyping the idea that U.S.-Russia negotiations involve a territorial exchange, claiming that Putin is willing to cede Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in exchange for control of Donetsk. This is entirely a diplomatic fiasco, stemming from a misinterpretation of Russia’s intentions by Steve Witkof, Trump’s special envoy for Middle East affairs. ...

Breaking Down the U.S.-Russia Negotiations: Trump’s Energy Encirclement and Putin’s Geopolitical Red Lines Trump’s Economic Cards: Energy Is the Key Weapon When Trump negotiated tariffs with major oil-importing nations like Europe, Japan, and South Korea, only two concrete measures were implemented: adjusting tariff rates and requiring them to purchase U.S. energy. Those investment agreements, often worth hundreds of billions of dollars, were largely for show and held little practical binding force. ...

I. The Fundamental Contradiction of Trump’s Economic Reforms The “small government, big business” reforms promoted by Trump represent, in essence, a complete reversal of the U.S. economic development model of the past 17 years. Following the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. economy became heavily reliant on federal government debt-fueled stimulus, achieving economic growth through the excessive issuance of government bonds. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, this “big government, small business” model was taken to its extreme. ...

The Illusion Behind the U.S. GDP Data for Q2 2025 In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. GDP grew by 2.96% year-over-year. On the surface, this appears to be a strong rebound from the -0.51% recorded in the first quarter, but it is essentially a statistical sleight of hand resulting from accounting rules. To understand the true meaning of this data, we must first clarify the fundamental differences in how the United States and China calculate GDP. ...

The core drivers of this round of the A-share market rally are Supply-Side Reform 2.0 and policies aimed at combating internal competition. During the first wave of Supply-Side Reform 1.0 in 2015, demand was stimulated through the monetization of shantytown renovation, while prices were raised by eliminating outdated production capacity. By applying pressure on both the supply and demand sides simultaneously, many of the issues at the time were resolved. The current approach to Supply-Side Reform 2.0 is essentially the same: on the supply side, we continue to cut overcapacity and raise prices, while on the demand side, we rely on policies such as large-scale infrastructure projects and childbirth subsidies to boost domestic demand. Between 2024 and 2025, a wide range of measures—including debt swaps, local government bond arrangements, fiscal and monetary policies, consumption stimulus, and industrial regulation—were employed, but the results were generally lackluster. The public isn’t swayed by empty promises; they only trust tangible infrastructure stimulus—things they can see and touch. On one hand, no one is willing to believe in abstract policy concepts; on the other, the economic rhetoric from top leaders is too obscure—it’s so dry it could put you to sleep—so naturally, acceptance is low. If they could speak as bluntly as Trump, the effectiveness of policy communication might be much better. ...

The Significance of the M1-M2 Spread In the June social financing data released in mid-July, the growth rate of M1 has already reached a clear inflection point and is rising rapidly. If M1 growth continues to outpace M2 in the coming months, forming what is known as the “golden spread,” it will essentially confirm that the liquidity environment is improving. In recent years, those bearish on China have constantly harped on the “liquidity trap” and “deflation”—this data directly contradicts their claims. ...

The Fundamental Differences in Core Contradictions Today is July 30, 2025. This episode wasn’t originally part of the update schedule, but since I’ve received so many similar questions recently, I’ve decided to dedicate this episode to analyzing current hot topics. This episode focuses on three key areas: the Chinese economy, commodities, and the U.S. economy. Due to space limitations, the section on the U.S. economy may be split into the next episode. ...

Project Overview and Scale On July 19, 2025, construction officially began on the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Project, which is being developed by the newly established China Yajiang Group. The project employs a development model that involves straightening the river course and diverting water through tunnels. It comprises five cascade power stations with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan—equivalent to the combined investment of three Three Gorges Projects—and is expected to take 10 to 15 years to complete. Upon completion, it will become the largest hydropower project in human history, with an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours. This will account for 3% of China’s total electricity consumption in 2024, meet 20% of residential electricity demand, and serve approximately 280 million people. ...

The Ideals and Reality of the Pennsylvania Plan The United States’ vision for the Pennsylvania Plan essentially centers on achieving economic revitalization through the reshoring of manufacturing, aiming to replicate China’s path of high growth, high inflation, and high income from the 1990s. The core logic behind this vision is that restoring manufacturing capacity will enable the replication of China’s economic miracle of that era. However, whether analyzed from the supply side or the demand side, this goal is simply impossible to achieve. The global economic landscape of the 1990s was entirely different from today’s: the world before 2008 was an era of extremely robust demand and severe supply shortages. In particular, after China’s reform and opening-up, the entry of one billion people into the global market generated an unprecedented surge in demand. At that time, a large portion of the population had not yet achieved a moderately prosperous life, and demand for industrial goods such as home appliances and automobiles was in an explosive growth phase. The scale of this growth is something the current world cannot replicate. ...

The Pennsylvania Plan: The Ultimate Framework for U.S. Debt Management The Pennsylvania Plan is the current ultimate debt management framework the U.S. is using to address its fiscal and trade twin deficits. It was first proposed by analysts at Deutsche Bank, and its name derives from Pennsylvania Avenue, where the U.S. Treasury is located. Simply put, this plan aims to adjust the structure of U.S. Treasury bond holdings, reduce reliance on foreign capital, and instead rely on domestic capital to carry out debt restructuring. ...

Assessing Long-Term Trends in Major Asset Classes We are bullish on three core asset classes over the long term: A-shares, gold, and commodities. It is important to note that this refers specifically to long-term trends, not short-term trading advice. The core premise of investing is to distinguish between long-term and short-term logic, as the investment strategies differ entirely. U.S. stocks are currently overvalued and will only offer long-term investment value after a deep correction brings them back into a healthy valuation range. ...

The Core Contradiction of the Global Economy: Artificial Overheating of Demand vs. Actual Shortage of Demand Currently, global economies—including the United States—are universally facing the dilemma of insufficient effective demand. While the market presents the illusion of artificial demand overheating, there is in fact a severe oversupply on the supply side. What the U.S. economy needs most at present is capacity reduction, not policy stimulus that encourages businesses and households to increase leverage and expand production capacity. Trump’s current policy direction not only undermines the service sector—the backbone of the U.S. economy—but also encourages industrial firms to increase leverage and expand capacity, a strategy strikingly similar to policies of the Hoover era. ...

Purpose and Background of the Bill On July 5, 2025, the Trump administration’s “Big and Beautiful” tax cut bill officially entered the implementation phase. Contrary to most media reports, this is not a routine fiscal policy adjustment, but rather the most disruptive attempt at social transformation in the United States since the end of the Cold War. Its core objective is to completely reverse the “big government + small business” development model that has persisted for half a century, shifting toward a new “small government + big business” framework that transfers the driving force of the U.S. economy from the federal government to the business and household sectors. ...

Summary of the US-Iran-Israel Conflict and Outlook for the Future of the Middle East Differences in Strategic Objectives Between Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel On July 1, 2025, let’s review the recent developments in the Iran-Israel conflict and discuss possible future trajectories for the Middle East. First, let’s compare the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel theaters side by side; doing so reveals many interesting insights. Russia has been fighting the Russia-Ukraine war for so long, yet its objectives have remained largely unchanged from the very beginning: the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and preventing its accession to NATO. From start to finish, it has been referred to as a “special military operation,” with no mention of an escalation to full-scale war. With this single move, they’ve effectively twisted the “anti-Nazi World War II narrative” the West wanted to push into a “World War I-style narrative of great power geopolitical rivalry”—in plain terms, it’s all about seizing territory, with no clear distinction between good and evil. As a result, resistance from the international community to unite against Russia has naturally diminished, making it easier to negotiate long-term cooperation with other nations. ...

The Essence and True Impact of Stablecoins from an Accounting Perspective A Rebuttal to the View That “Stablecoins Re-Monetize Debt” Recently, many content creators have argued that stablecoins allow debt to be “re-monetized.” This claim contains a fundamental error; in particular, the term “re-” is completely at odds with the operational logic of stablecoins. Stablecoins themselves do not possess collateralization, staking, or lending functions. Unlike traditional banks, they cannot expand their capital base through deposit-taking and the money multiplier effect—where a single dollar in the banking system can be turned into several dollars in circulation through lending—but stablecoins lack this attribute entirely. ...

The Real Contradictions in AI Development Many people believe that AI technology is important, and they are right—it is indeed very important. However, the core contradiction in the current AI industry has never been a technical issue, but rather overinvestment. Any industry that falls into a vicious cycle of overinvestment will generate systemic risks, much like the real estate bubble of the past—while it’s certainly unacceptable for people to be homeless, when the entire society engages in real estate speculation, it inevitably leads to massive misallocation of resources. ...

Criteria for Assessing the Middle East Situation: An Analysis of the Nature of the Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities At present, there is no reliable evidence to prove that the United States has completely destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities. The criterion for determining whether the attack was successful is simple: as long as the United States is still willing to negotiate with Iran, it means the nuclear facilities have not been destroyed. Conversely, considering that Israel has already assassinated most of Iran’s nuclear scientists, if the nuclear facilities were destroyed as well, the U.S. would have absolutely no reason to continue negotiations. ...

Opening Update: Vietnam Joins the BRICS Cooperation Mechanism On June 18, 2025, Vietnam officially became the tenth member of the BRICS Cooperation Mechanism, marking a further expansion of the global emerging markets bloc. This development will reshape the industrial chain landscape in the Asia-Pacific region, introduce new variables into regional economic cooperation, and serve as a key indicator for observing future geo-economic trends. Gold Market: The Underlying Logic of Lease Rates and Arbitrage Mechanisms Behind recent fluctuations in gold prices, the Gold Lease Rate (GLR) serves as a key indicator. Its formula is GLR = SOFR – GOFO, and it essentially represents the arbitrage balancing mechanism in the gold market: ...

The True Nature of the Tariff War: Chaos Is Exactly What Trump Wants Recently, global markets have been paying increasing attention to the tariff war. One moment a country is negotiating with the U.S., the next another is—any related news story can sway global market trends. But most people fail to realize that this current state of chaos is precisely the outcome Trump wants most. The more attention people pay to the tariff war, the greater the significance of tariffs as bargaining chips becomes—and the easier it is for Trump to lead them by the nose. In fact, this logic was already crystal clear long before Trump’s election victory last year: once Trump took office, he would inevitably use tariffs as a key bargaining chip to negotiate global interests. Tariffs are always merely a means to an end, not an end in themselves. ...

Macro Context: The U.S. Strategy of Dual Contraction The fundamental assessment at this time is clear: the United States is currently in a cycle of dual contraction in both the economic and geopolitical spheres. Signs of economic contraction are already quite evident, while on the geopolitical front, the U.S. core strategy is to do everything possible to avoid becoming embroiled in large-scale direct warfare—a principle that applies equally to both Ukraine and the Middle East. ...