Macro Context: The U.S. Strategy of Dual Contraction

The fundamental assessment at this time is clear: the United States is currently in a cycle of dual contraction in both the economic and geopolitical spheres. Signs of economic contraction are already quite evident, while on the geopolitical front, the U.S. core strategy is to do everything possible to avoid becoming embroiled in large-scale direct warfare—a principle that applies equally to both Ukraine and the Middle East.

However, it is important to clarify that U.S. retrenchment does not equate to a complete withdrawal. Even without direct military involvement, the U.S. continues to provide intelligence and satellite support to Ukraine and Israel. The U.S. provided technical support behind Israel’s “Operation Lion’s Might” strike against Iran, as well as Ukraine’s earlier “Operation Spider’s Web.”

This U.S. strategy essentially replicates the historical lessons of World War I and World War II. The greater the chaos in other regions of the world, the greater the benefits for the U.S. as an “offshore balancer”: it can both continue to export military equipment and industrial products to turbulent regions and sell oil and natural gas to Europe at high prices. This mirrors the logic behind the partition of India and Pakistan left behind by Britain upon its withdrawal from India—after the U.S. gradually withdraws from regions such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and East Asia, long-standing historical issues will gradually erupt, allowing the U.S. to profit from the chaos. The future restructuring of order in these regions will essentially be a direct contest of power among all parties.

Three Stages of the Middle East Situation

Since Trump took office, the evolution of the Middle East situation can be divided into three distinct stages:

  1. Early Negotiation Phase: The U.S.’s original strategic plan was to secure Yemen and then, in conjunction with Israel and India, encircle Iran from three directions—establishing a naval blockade from Yemen, applying pressure on the western front via Israel from Syria, and containing Iran on the eastern front by targeting Pakistan. The U.S. hoped this three-pronged encirclement would force Iran to sign a nuclear agreement and completely abandon its nuclear facilities.
  2. Late Negotiation Phase: If Iran were to possess nuclear weapons, the balance of power in the Middle East would be completely disrupted. Sunni nations would inevitably shift their allegiance toward the East, and the U.S.’s influence in the region would plummet, potentially even threatening the security of its military bases. Therefore, Iran possessing weapons-grade nuclear facilities was an absolute red line for the U.S.; at most, it would allow Iran to retain civilian-grade nuclear facilities.
  3. Current Phase of Conflict: Following the breakdown of negotiations, Israel took the lead in launching an attack on Iran, plunging the situation into direct conflict.

Core Stances of All Parties

Israel

Israel’s position is crystal clear: Iran must under no circumstances be allowed to possess any nuclear facilities. An Iranian nuclear arsenal would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Middle East and directly threaten Israel’s survival and security—this is Israel’s core red line.

Iran

Iran’s nuclear facilities are essentially its strongest bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States. Iran’s current geopolitical security environment has improved significantly: Sunni and Shia factions have achieved a degree of reconciliation, and there are no major threats from Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Yemen; the primary security pressure comes solely from the western front, where Israel is located. Iran hopes to use the nuclear negotiations to secure the lifting of U.S. sanctions, but it will absolutely not completely abandon its nuclear facilities; at most, it will accept downgrading weapons-grade facilities to civilian-grade levels.

United States

The United States’ core objective is to maintain its influence in the Middle East and to court Sunni nations such as Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the U.S. also hopes that Iran will completely dismantle its nuclear facilities, yet it is striving to avoid direct involvement in war, leaving it caught in a state of conflict between these two priorities.