U.S.-Iran Relations

Assessment of the Pace of U.S.-Iran Negotiations Currently, the prevailing view is that the U.S. and Iran will ultimately engage in peace talks. The pace is likely to mirror that of the tariff and trade wars—dragging on, with cycles of conflict and negotiation, taking a long time. However, the basic framework may be finalized by the end of April. We cannot rule out a final round of high-stakes brinkmanship before then, nor can we rule out unexpected complications during the negotiations, attempts by the U.S. to seize nuclear materials, or further assassinations by Israel. Nevertheless, the current assessment is that there is a high probability the situation will be resolved by the end of April. ...

Macro Context: The U.S. Strategy of Dual Contraction The fundamental assessment at this time is clear: the United States is currently in a cycle of dual contraction in both the economic and geopolitical spheres. Signs of economic contraction are already quite evident, while on the geopolitical front, the U.S. core strategy is to do everything possible to avoid becoming embroiled in large-scale direct warfare—a principle that applies equally to both Ukraine and the Middle East. ...