Gold

A Series of Analytical Frameworks on the Performance of Major Asset Classes During a Rate-Cutting Cycle With the Federal Reserve officially launching its rate-cutting cycle in October 2025, global major asset classes are set to enter a new pricing cycle. This series of analyses will cover five major asset classes: gold, silver, A-shares, U.S. stocks, and commodities. As the first installment in the series, this article focuses on the macro investment logic behind gold. ...

Wall Street’s short squeeze on gold has completely failed this time; there isn’t enough time or room left to push prices lower. If the U.S. actually implements YCC in the future, these institutions might just flip their positions and go long. This failed short squeeze isn’t a tactical issue at all; it’s because the fundamentals of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries are absolutely rotten. Coupled with the broader trend of deglobalization, the world is dumping dollar assets and buying gold—demand simply can’t be suppressed. It is highly likely that gold will reach $3,700 in the coming months. Even if a liquidity crisis were to occur in the interim, it would only be a temporary pullback; the long-term trend remains unchanged. ...

Opening Update: Vietnam Joins the BRICS Cooperation Mechanism On June 18, 2025, Vietnam officially became the tenth member of the BRICS Cooperation Mechanism, marking a further expansion of the global emerging markets bloc. This development will reshape the industrial chain landscape in the Asia-Pacific region, introduce new variables into regional economic cooperation, and serve as a key indicator for observing future geo-economic trends. Gold Market: The Underlying Logic of Lease Rates and Arbitrage Mechanisms Behind recent fluctuations in gold prices, the Gold Lease Rate (GLR) serves as a key indicator. Its formula is GLR = SOFR – GOFO, and it essentially represents the arbitrage balancing mechanism in the gold market: ...

The Core Logic of Gold Allocation: Geopolitics Is the Primary Driver The pricing of gold has long been driven by two major factors: geopolitics and the economy. The recent “Operation Spider Web” in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the earlier India-Pakistan conflict, are vivid examples of gold’s safe-haven attributes. We have repeatedly emphasized that in the current “Warring States Period” of global geopolitical fragmentation, one must never hold a zero position in gold. While most people do not yet fully grasp the significance of this statement, after experiencing several instances of sharp gold price volatility triggered by sudden geopolitical events, they will develop a reflexive understanding of its importance. Do not attempt to time the market precisely; you cannot predict what geopolitical events will occur between morning and afternoon, nor can you make a 100% accurate judgment on economic trends. The correct strategy is to maintain a core position: add to your holdings in stages during downturns and gradually reduce them during uptrends. This approach avoids both fully betting on the market and completely exiting it, thereby preventing you from being caught off guard by sudden risk events. ...