International Politics

Introduction Hello everyone, today we’re going to talk about the U.S.-Iran conflict. Our discussion today will cover the following points: First, we’ll discuss the U.S.’s recent actions to block the Strait of Hormuz; Second, we’ll analyze the current situations of the U.S. and Iran; Third, we’ll talk about what is often referred to as Trump’s “perfect plan”—namely, the possibility that Trump might make a comeback in 2027; Fourth, at this stage, I do not believe a war in the Middle East will escalate into World War III. If World War III were to break out one day in the future, what would be the prerequisites or preconditions for its outbreak? Fifth, if you were Trump, how would you strategize in the Middle East to secure U.S. hegemony? ...

Assessment of the Pace of U.S.-Iran Negotiations Currently, the prevailing view is that the U.S. and Iran will ultimately engage in peace talks. The pace is likely to mirror that of the tariff and trade wars—dragging on, with cycles of conflict and negotiation, taking a long time. However, the basic framework may be finalized by the end of April. We cannot rule out a final round of high-stakes brinkmanship before then, nor can we rule out unexpected complications during the negotiations, attempts by the U.S. to seize nuclear materials, or further assassinations by Israel. Nevertheless, the current assessment is that there is a high probability the situation will be resolved by the end of April. ...